Iprimiyamu yomngcipheko kwi-equity yinto ebaluleke kakhulu kutyalo-mali lwanamhlanje. Yiyo le evelisa isahlulo esibalulekileyo senzuzo yotyalo mali. Uluvo olungaphaya kwepremiyamu yomngcipheko kwi-equity kukuba imivuzo ephezulu iyahambelana nomngcipheko omkhulu.
Yintoni iPrimiyamu yomngcipheko we-Equity?
Iprimiyamu yomngcipheko kwi-equity kukubuyisa istokhwe ngasinye okanye intengiso iyonke inikezela ngaphezulu kwenqanaba elingenabungozi. Ukuqonda i-equity yomngcipheko we-equity kufuna ukuqonda kwenqanaba elingenamngcipheko, kunye nokuqonda ireyithi engenamngcipheko kufuna ukuqonda komngcipheko ngokwawo.
izinto zokuthetha emngcwabeniAmanqaku afanelekileyo
- Ubala njani uMphindaphindo wezoLingano
- Ukuqonda amatyala kwi-Equity Ratio
- Ubudlelwane phakathi kwamaNqaku oNondyebo amaXabiso eMboleko yeMali mboleko
Umngcipheko kunye neRisk-Free Rate
Utyalo-mali kwi-equity luyakuhlala luzisa inqanaba elithile lomngcipheko, elihlala liphezulu kunqanaba lomngcipheko onxulunyaniswa notyalo-mali lwamatyala (okt iibhondi). Ngaphandle kwe izitokhwe ezikhethiweyo , akukho ntlawulo ziqinisekisiweyo ezivela kutyalomali kwi-equity. Njengomtyali mali, uyathemba ukuba isabelo senkampani oyithengileyo siyonyuka ngexabiso njengoko inkampani ikhula, inyusa isabelo sentengiso, njlnjl. Nangona kunjalo, kungenzeka ukuba ihlala ikhona ukuba inkampani iya kuncipha ngexabiso. Lo ngumngcipheko owuthathayo, kwaye kunokwenzeka ukuba inkampani isilele ekufumaneni umvuzo ongaphezulu oza kuwufumana ukuba bayaphumelela. Le nto yaziwa ngokuba yi umngcipheko wokubuyela kurhwebo .
Izinga lokungabikho komngcipheko liqondo lokubuya elingaphenduliyo ngomngcipheko ochazwe apha ngasentla. Yinqanaba elihlawula nje abatyali mali kwimiba enokuvela ixesha elininzi, njengokunyuka kwamaxabiso. Izinga lokungabikho komngcipheko ngokubanzi lithathwa kwinqanaba leebhondi zikarhulumente zexesha elide, kuba umngcipheko wokungaphumeleli kurhulumente kwezi bhondi kucingelwa ukuba awukho kwaphela.
Ukubala iPrimiyamu yomngcipheko we-Equity
Abatyalomali bafuna imbuyekezo ephezulu kutyalo-mali olunomngcipheko. Le mfuno yiyo emisela i-premium yomngcipheko we-equity kwisitokhwe esithile. Ipremiyamu yomngcipheko kwi-equity kunye nenqanaba lokungabikho komngcipheko kubandakanya ukubuya okupheleleyo kwesitokhwe.
Ukubalwa kwepremiyamu yomngcipheko kwi-equity kuxhomekeke ikakhulu kuqikelelo nakwizigwebo zabatyali mali. Lixabiso eliqhotyoshelwe emngciphekweni, kwaye ngenxa yesi sizathu lisekwe kumbono. Amanyathelo amathathu okubala, kweyona fomu isisiseko, zezi zilandelayo:
- Qikelela ukubuya okulindelekileyo kwisitokhwe.
- Qikelela ireyithi engenamngcipheko.
- Thabatha ireyithi engenamngcipheko kwimbuyekezo elindelekileyo yonke ukuze ufumane ipremiyamu yomngcipheko kwi-equity.
Kwifom yokulinganisa: Umngcipheko we-Equity Risk Premium = Imbuyekezo elindelekileyo kwistokhwe- umngcipheko wasimahla
Uqikelelo lwembuyekezo ekulindelweyo
Imbuyekezo ye-S & P 500
Eyona ndlela inokusebenziseka ukugqiba eli nyathelo kukusebenzisa ukubuya okulindelweyo kwisalathiso sesitokhwe, njenge I-S & P 500 okanye Umndilili weDow Jones weShishini , njengommeli wembuyekezo elindelekileyo kuzo zonke izitokhwe. Kuyenzeka ukuba ufumane uqikelelo oluqinisekileyo lokubuya okulindelweyo ngokufumana i-avareji yembuyiselo yembali isalathiso esiye sabakho.
Uqikelelo lweNqanaba eliNgenaMngcipheko
Isibophelelo sikarhulumente esisesona sisilungeleyo ukuba sisetyenziswe njengomngcipheko wexabiso lokulinganisa (eUnited States, ubuncinci) yaziwa njenge Ukukhuselwa kokuKhuselwa kwamaxabiso kuNondyebo - ikwabizwa ngokuba yi-TIPS. Iindleko zee-TIPS kunye nezixa-mali ezihlawulwa ngamaxesha athile zihlengahlengiswa rhoqo ngonyaka ukujongana nokunyuka kwamaxabiso; ke ngoko, ukubuya kwayo akufuneki kulungelelaniswe emva kwenyani.
Ukufumana iPrimiyamu yomngcipheko we-Equity
Nje ukuba kufumaneke i-premium yomngcipheko we-equity kwimarike iyonke, sinokufumana umngcipheko we-equity kumngcipheko wesitokhwe ngasinye ngokwandisa iphrimiyamu yomngcipheko wentengiso ngesitokhwe ngasinye ulungelelwaniso lwe-beta .
I-beta yesitokhwe ibalwa ngohlalutyo lokuhlengahlengiswa kwaye ngumlinganiso wokungazinzi kwayo xa kuthelekiswa nokungazinzi kwintengiso. Ijikeleza malunga no-1, kunye neebhetas ezisezantsi ezimele ukungazinzi kunentengiso kunye nokubheja okuphezulu okubonisa ukungazinzi kunentengiso.
Ukutolika iNkulumbuso yomngcipheko we-Equity
Masithi ukubuya okuphakathi kwembali yonyaka ye-S & P 500 index yi-13%. Ireyithi yangoku yokubuyela kwi-TIPS yeminyaka engama-30 yi-2%. Iprimiyamu yokulingana komngcipheko wentengiso iya kuba:
Umngcipheko we-Equity Risk Premium = 13% - 2% = Shumi elinanye%
Kule meko, iipesenti ezili-11 linqanaba lokubuya eliza kufunwa ngabatyali mali ukuze batyale imali kwintengiso kunokubophelela urhulumente ngaphandle komngcipheko. Abaphathi beenkampani, ukongeza kubatyali mali, baya kuba nomdla kwipremiyamu yomngcipheko kwi-equity, kuba oku kuya kubanika umlinganiso wokubuyela umva wokudubula ukwenzela ukutsala abatyali mali abaninzi.
Masithi unomdla kwi-premium yomngcipheko we-equity apile . Ukuba umlinganiso we-beta ka-Apple ngu-1.5, kwaye i-premium ye-equity yomngcipheko we-11%, phinda-phinda i-11% ngo-1.5:
Umngcipheko we-Apple Equity Risk Premium = 11% x 1.5 = 16.5%
Oku kuthetha ukuba iApple kufuneka ivelise ireyithi yokubuya ye-16.5% ukwenzela ukutsala abatyali mali kude kwiibhondi ezingenamngcipheko.
IiPrimiyamu zomngcipheko wolingano 'oqhelekileyo'
Iprimiyamu yomngcipheko kwi-equity ebalwe ngentla apha iya kuba sisantya sokubuya kunye nesingenakufezeka. Uninzi lwabatyalomali balindele i-premium yomngcipheko kwi-5%. Nangona kunjalo, izifundo zemfundo Ndicebisile ukuba eli nani alichanekanga kwaye ipremiyamu efanelekileyo kakhulu yomngcipheko iya kuba malunga ne-2.5%.
imibala yesangqa semood bathetha ntoni
Uqikelelo lwexesha elide
Ekugqibeleni, i-premium yomngcipheko we-equity is prediction of how much riskier stocks will outperform less bond bonds at the long-term. Iingxaki zomzekelo zibandakanya inyani yokuba ithatha indawo yentengiso yesitokhwe iya kwenza ngokufanayo nendlela ebisebenza ngayo ngaphambili. Oku kunokuba yindawo enobungozi yokuthatha, ngoko ke i-premium ye-equity risk risk premium kufuneka ihlale ithathwa ngqolowa yetyuwa.
Akukho siqinisekiso sokuba ukubikezela kuya kugqitywa kube yinyani, kodwa ipremiyamu yomngcipheko kwi-equity yeyona nto intle kakhulu ukuba ungayisebenzisa xa ukhethaisitokhweLutyalomali olufanelekileyo.
